STABILITY (Levels of)
| Collection | International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics |
|---|---|
| Year | 2004 |
| Vol. (num.) | 2(2) |
| ID | ◀ 3153 ▶ |
| Object type | General information, Methodology or model |
No stability is absolute. However, short, medium and long term stabilities can be distinguished in many cases. Of course, short, medium and long term should be defined according to the nature of the system and its processes.
Higher levels of stability embed shorter ones as their limit. As stated by L. DOUGLAS KIEL: “This understanding requires a rethinking of the purposes of forecasting. Perhaps a more prudent approach to forecasting then, should focus on forecasting ”symmetry breaking“ events when existing structures break down generating extreme uncertainty as to structural and behavioral outcomes” (1975, p.36).
A good application of this different forecasting technique is the chartists analysis of stock markets trends. (which does not imply that chartists necessarily understand the rationale of this technique!).