INDUSTRIAL DYNAMICS
| Collection | International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics |
|---|---|
| Year | 2004 |
| Vol. (num.) | 2(1) |
| ID | ◀ 1643 ▶ |
| Object type | Discipline oriented, Methodology or model |
A computer-based technique of modelization of complex business and industrial firms.
Industrial Dynamics was proposed by J. FORRESTER, of the M.I.T (1961), and later on extended to socio-economic and socio-ecological systems in general (See “Club of Rome”, “Systems Dynamics”).
The I.D. models are expressed in DYNAMO, a computer simulation language, also developed at M.I.T.
I.D. modelization is generally based on interconnected feedbacks between a number of variables considered to be basic for the adaptation and evolution of the system under study. It produces important insights into the causes and effects of disturbances in processes, their propagation, their more or less cyclical character and their final impact on the stability of the system.
However, the selection of the variables to be considered, the definitions about their relationships and the reliability of the collected data may all be controversial (Ch. FRANÇOIS, 1977).
Also J.van GIGCH observed (quoting I. ANSOFF & D.P. SLEVIN, 1968, p.395): “Industrial Dynamics has been criticized because it is not ”a theory“ in the sense of providing 1) ”predictions about relations of variables which have not been previously observed“ and 2) ”a verification of validity of the theory through comparison of relations established in theory with observable relations in the real world“ (1978, p.330).
FORRESTER himself rightly observes: “Like all simulations, the ”behavior“ of the system is dependent on the structure of the model's equations. As such ”Industrial Dynamics“ deals with closed systems. This means that the behavior modes of interest are generated within the boundaries of the desired system” (1961, p.406).
In synthesis, any result obtained is implicit within the model as it has been constructed, which however does not diminish the interest of revealing probably unsuspected behavior modes. I.D. models have a kind of organizational closure.