EFFECT (Delayed)
| Collection | International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics |
|---|---|
| Year | 2004 |
| Vol. (num.) | 2(1) |
| ID | ◀ 1025 ▶ |
| Object type | General information, Methodology or model |
An effect that becomes apparent only after a very long time.
The existence of delayed effects is generally well perceived (“The last straw that broke the camel's back”), but nonetheless nearly always unperceived and unpredicted… and when predicted, mostly met with wide skepticism.
These effects tend to be catastrophic, for the following reasons:
- They generally result of a slow accumulation of very small and scantily visible effects at a time scale so long that it escapes the common observer's attention;
- They generally result in violent and very sudden discontinuities (“catastrophes”);
- Their mostly show up at a macro- or mega-level in time and frequently catch their victims in a state of total unpreparedness, because they are so difficult to forecast.
- This unpredictability is compounded by the fact that they frequently lead to global instability and chaotic behavior.
Delayed effects are universal in complex systems:
- In physical systems: Earthquakes, floods, great forest fires, volcanic eruptions:
- In living systems: epidemics, strokes, infarcts
- In economic systems: bankrupcies, market crashes
- In social systems: civil wars, revolutions
Delayed effects seem to be closely related to phase transitions, giant fluctuations and chaos. They frequently lead to irreversible changes.
The most dangerous delayed effects are the most delayed ones, generally related to not very obvious mega-trends. The closer study of delayed effects could lead to a “science of potential dangers” and better risks evaluations.
See also
Cyndinics