DISASTERS: A systemic view
| Collection | International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics |
|---|---|
| Year | 2004 |
| Vol. (num.) | 2(1) |
| ID | ◀ 935 ▶ |
| Object type | General information |
Most disasters, in particular those concocted by men, have complex causes, are complex when they succeed and have complex consequences. They are thus a typical object for systemic research.
Complexity of causes is of two different orders:
- Numerous concurrent causes are generally necessary to bring about the disaster. The understanding of their progressive interactions is of paramount importance for prediction, reaction and mending. One specific cause must be considered with special care: the trigger cause, which also has its own causes (no trigger, no disaster…).
- Causes are connected with processes that turn critical at some time. However, not all of these processes are at the same time scale. It is of paramount importance to distinguish between the slow accumulating causes, at times on a secular or multisecular process scale and, at times on a much shorter term.
Complexity in itself is the result of multiple interactions among processes, some very basic, some other circumstancial… and many of them hidden or at least not readily visible. Only a good knowledge of these interactions can draw the attention to potential risks at specific moments.
In many cases, side-effects of human action are also ignored, as research on physical causes generally shadows psychological, social, political, economic and even cultural ones. This ignorance is in itself a cause of disasters.
In synthesis, research on disasters, past or in the making, must be systemic.
See also
Cindynics