PREDICTIVE EVENT
| Collection | International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics |
|---|---|
| Year | 2004 |
| Vol. (num.) | 2(2) |
| ID | ◀ 2613 ▶ |
| Object type | General information, Human sciences, Methodology or model |
An event that normally precedes some other event.
The concept of predictive event is useful but quite ambiguous. A lightning is most generally succeeded by a thunderclap, because it is its direct cause and the connection between both is quite evident and inmediate.
Some events produce however their consequences in faraway places where they may remain unknown, or after such a long span of time that the perception of any connection is lost. In some cases distance in space and/or time does not suppress the predictive value of an observation . B.S. ORLOVE et al. have described cases of use of predictive meteorological events made by more or less archaic populations in south America, Asia, Africa and Australia, all of these strictly based on empirical observations of clouds or brightness of stars (2002, p. 428-35)
On the other hand, the event becomes predictive for the observer who has already witnessed at least one (and better, various) similar sequences of events.
And even this is not enough if the observer has no model or frame of reference through which the observation makes sense. However, as in the case of so-called ethno-climatology, the frame of reference does not need to be an elaborated scientific theory.
See also
Clue, Predictability, Predictor, Prediction, Prospective