MODEL (Predictive)
| Collection | International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics |
|---|---|
| Year | 2004 |
| Vol. (num.) | 2(2) |
| ID | ◀ 2147 ▶ |
| Object type | Methodology or model |
A model whose dynamic features lead to, or aim at forecasting.
Predictive models are the first condition for the institution of anticipatory behavior through feed-forward (R. ROSEN, 1991, p.543-4).
ROSEN observes that even biological organisms seem to possess some nonconscious behavioral traits akin to predictive models, based on the present observation or registration of some sequence of events that can be interpreted as early warnings of future events: A deciduous tree sheds its leaves not because the winter is coming, but because it registered the recent trend of the days to shorten. In such cases, some very general hereditary genetic trigger must be present.
ROSEN is in fact quite careful and states: “In any law governing a natural system, it is forbidden to allow present change'' of states'' to depend upon future states''” (p.545, italics his).
See “teleological explanations” and “System (Anticipatory)”.