GROWTH (Limits to)
| Collection | International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics |
|---|---|
| Year | 2004 |
| Vol. (num.) | 2(1) |
| ID | ◀ 1486 ▶ |
| Object type | General information, Human sciences |
1. This is the title of the famous first report to the Template:Ency term (1972), which concluded that the limitless demographic and economic growth of mankind was an impossiblity and would necessarily lead to a crash within a (historically) very short Template:Ency term. (Template:Ency person et al., 1972).
This work led to massive controversy, for a number of quite different technical, conceptual and political reasons. The technical ones were related to the construction of the Template:Ency term, based on the specific ways of use of Template:Ency person's Template:Ency term. More than 20 years later, this debate is still not settled (See Template:Ency person et al: “Groping in the Dark”, 1982, and subsequent comments).
The conceptual reasons are principally about the real possibilities to define which Template:Ency term are relevant, to obtain sufficiently reliable ones on a sufficient Template:Ency term, and even the possibility to construct any such complex Template:Ency term with a real predictive power.
The political reasons are related to the premises selected by the authors of this Template:Ency term (and the subsequent ones) referring to the needs and hopes of different human groups in the world.
In any case, the basic concept is about the impossibility to pursue an illimited (and nowadays exponential) demographic and economic growth. Template:Ency person may have been mistaken for two centuries, but he probably won't be forever.
See “Template:Ency term”; \term“{Growth (Logistic)}; \term”{Growth and stabilization}“; \term”{Growth (Rate of)}“.
2. A deeper interpretation of limits to growth has been proposed by Template:Ency person: “… systems… are limited in their Template:Ency term; hence, Template:Ency term also are limited. It is not possible for a system to adapt to everything. It is this limitation in Template:Ency term that prevents a system from growing to infinite Template:Ency term. Thus, institutions as they grow, face, among other problems, one of internal Template:Ency term… The system ceases to grow, partly because it is unable to adapt to the internal Template:Ency term problems of further growth” (1968, p.80).
This may be the deepest available explanation for Template:Ency term in Template:Ency term: beyond some limits at a defined Template:Ency term of Template:Ency term, growth becomes impossible. It can however be resumed if a number of systems at that Template:Ency term integrate themselves into a system of higher Template:Ency term of Template:Ency term.