TIME HORIZON
| Collection | International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics |
|---|---|
| Year | 2004 |
| Vol. (num.) | 2(2) |
| ID | ◀ 3559 ▶ |
| Object type | Discipline oriented, Methodology or model |
- “The last year in the future to which a model can be run”.
This notion is closely related to J. FORRESTER's Systems Dynamics.
According to D. MEADOWS et al: “The time horizon may be an important factor in distinguishing between optimistic and pessimisitic futures. Both World 3 and the MESAROVIC/PESTEL models reveal problems that may occur some time after the turn of the century. Models that have shorter time horizon cannot shed much light on such problems. On the other hand, the more analytically oriented and detailed econometric and input-output models are probably more useful for short- and mid-term projections” (1982, p.103).
In any case, long term models are normally more uncertain than short term ones, because they include not easily verifiable hypothesis about the future validity of long term trends, as they seem to appear from data through the modelizer interpretation. Moreover, let us not forget that complex systems may unexpectedly show a chaotic behavior.