BASE RATE EFFECT
Charles François (2004). BASE RATE EFFECT, International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics, 2(1): 238.
| Collection | International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics |
|---|---|
| Year | 2004 |
| Vol. (num.) | 2(1) |
| ID | ◀ 238 ▶ |
| Object type | Methodology or model |
- “The effect that the chances of an event occuring at all - its base rate - have on our ability to predict it” (R. MATTHEWS, 1997, p.25)
The more infrequent an event , the less we can predict its occurence.
This has practical consequences. MATTHEWS states: “Its central lesson - that rare events are hard to predict - could… save us from spending millions on what may well be scientific wild goose chase”. As a possible example, the author gives the prediction of earthquakes, a costly research until now “without a single unequivocal success” (p.31).
Criticality theory helps to understand the deeper reasons of such failures.