EXTRAPOLATION
| Collection | International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics |
|---|---|
| Year | 2004 |
| Vol. (num.) | 2(1) |
| ID | ◀ 1233 ▶ |
| Object type | General information |
The inference of forecasts or unknown information from historical trends.
Extrapolation is, from the systemic viewpoint, one of the most risky method at hand. It supposes the unperturbed continuity of existing trends, and even the correctness of the evaluation made of the latter.
It implies the beliefs: 1) that the relationships between relevant variables will remain stable (i.e. that the system is basically linear); 2) that long or extra-long trends are effectively known (f. ex. the multi-secular oscillations in climate); 3) that no ignored or new factor could influence the system (f. ex. the appearance of sporadic and ulterior runaway resistance of insects to insecticides).
Catastrophe theory, as well as chaos theory and dissipative structuration show that extrapolation has very narrow limits as a predictive technique.